Bihar Floor Test Scheduled for Monday: Will Nitish Kumar Secure Trust Vote? Here’s an Analysis of State Assembly Numbers

Bihar’s New Government Faces Crucial Floor Test on Monday

The floor test for the new Bihar government, led by the coalition of Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) (HAMS), is scheduled to take place in the assembly on Monday, February 12.

Previously, Nitish Kumar was a part of the Mahagathbandhan alliance. However, he departed from the coalition to assume office for an unprecedented ninth term as Bihar’s chief minister on January 28, this time with the support of the BJP.

Now, Kumar’s new cabinet must undergo a crucial trust vote to demonstrate its majority support in the Bihar Assembly. Yet, what are the prospects of Nitish Kumar securing victory in this trust vote? Let’s examine the current numbers in the state assembly to ascertain the situation.

Party	How many MLAs it has in Bihar Assembly
JDU	45
BJP	78
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)	79
HAM(S)	4
Congress	19
CPI(ML)(L)	12
CPI(M)	2
CPI	2
AIMIM	1
Independent	1

(Data source: vidhansabha.bih.nic.in)

Now, Nitish Kumar, who recently joined the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), requires the support of at least 122 MLAs in the 243-member Bihar Assembly to retain his position as the Chief Minister.

According to current calculations, the NDA boasts a total of 128 MLAs, comprising members from the JD(U), the BJP, and the HAM(S), with one being an Independent MLA. With this count, Nitish Kumar’s government comfortably surpasses the majority threshold. Therefore, if all these MLAs uphold their support for Nitish Kumar’s administration, the Chief Minister is expected to secure the trust vote without much difficulty.

On the opposing front, the Mahagathbandhan commands a total of 114 MLAs, falling short by eight of the requisite majority mark of 122. The Mahagathbandhan includes MLAs from the RJD, Congress, CPI(ML), CPI(M), and CPI.

In a bid to forestall any potential defections to the NDA, RJD MLAs have been stationed at former Deputy Chief Minister Tejashwi Yadav’s residence since Saturday evening. Meanwhile, the BJP has relocated its MLAs to the Maha Bodhi resort in Bodh Gaya ahead of the floor test, citing the need for some training, and asserting that there is no imminent threat of defections from the opposition.

A JD(U) leader affirmed that all the MLAs are maintaining regular communication with the party, expressing confidence that the Nitish Kumar-led coalition would comfortably surpass the majority threshold during the upcoming floor test.

In response to speculation that the principal opposition party, the RJD, might attempt to lure away its MLAs, Manjhi emphasized on Saturday, “Hum gareeb ho sakte hain par beiman nahi” (We may be poor but we are not dishonest).

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